Dota 2 prediction markets reach $204 million in payouts

Prediction markets for the Dota 2 world championship, The International 2026, reached $204 million in payouts. Research from Predictbook indicates that Polymarket dominated the activity, accounting for approximately 90% of the total volume, while Kalshi accounted for 10% despite having a similar number of trades.

The data reveals a significant concentration of wealth and activity. On Polymarket, a small group of 1,640 wallets out of 21,936 was responsible for the vast majority of deposits. While more traders ended in profit (11,450) than loss (10,195), the financial outcomes were highly skewed: the median winner earned $4.84, whereas the median loser lost $23.15.

Analysis suggests that active trading of contracts—buying and selling as prices fluctuate—was more profitable than holding contracts until the final settlement. Approximately 5,004 Polymarket accounts generated a combined profit of over $7.5 million through price movement trading, while 16,932 accounts lost a combined $7.6 million by holding until the tournament's conclusion in Shanghai.