DRC uranium shipments to China could enable up to 1,500 nuclear warheads, study says

A study published in Nature Communications estimates that between 2,000 and 5,000 metric tons of natural uranium left the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) hidden in cobalt‑hydroxide exports from 2000 to 2024. Most of the material was shipped to China, and less than 10% was reported to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), even though the DRC has not reported uranium production for decades.

Researchers say the concealed uranium could supply enough fissile material for roughly 600 to 1,500 nuclear weapons. Because China refines about 95% of the world’s cobalt, the uranium becomes a valuable by‑product during refining. The study notes that, despite the lack of explicit intent to extract uranium, the volumes would allow China to produce about 12 weapons per year, potentially raising its stockpile toward 1,000 warheads by 2030. Additional concerns include thousands of tons of uranium discarded in mine tailings, posing radiation risks to miners and nearby communities.