Drewry forecasts container shipping overcapacity through 2028

Maritime consultancy Drewry anticipates a decline in both spot and contract freight rates in 2027. The firm projects that overcapacity in the container shipping market is inevitable during the 2027–2028 period, though the exact magnitude remains uncertain.

Accounting for potential delivery delays and vessel scrapping, Drewry projects net fleet growth of 8.8% in 2027, 12.1% in 2028, and 10% in 2029. While structural disruptions like congestion and trade imbalances have previously supported higher freight rates by limiting effective capacity, Drewry expects their relative impact to diminish as a massive influx of new vessels enters the market.

Despite the looming overcapacity, shipping lines continue to invest in new, more efficient units to remain competitive in scale and unit costs. Analysis suggests that the risk of underinvesting and operating an inefficient fleet may outweigh the costs of managing excess capacity.