Drought in Northern Brazil could raise Manaus shipping costs by 150%

A study by A&M Infra, conducted for the Brazilian Association of Cabotage Shipowners (Abac), warns that drought in Northern Brazil caused by El Niño could increase container transport costs to Manaus by up to 150%.

In a scenario where vessel draft is restricted by two meters, transport capacity decreases by 35% while unit costs rise by 63%. Under more severe conditions, involving a 3.2-meter reduction in draft, capacity could drop by 55%. The study notes that even with reduced cargo, much of the voyage cost remains constant, and the drought leads to delays, skipped stops, and additional storage needs.

Historical data from 2023 and 2024 highlights the vulnerability of the region. In October 2023, low water levels halted ship passages for weeks, causing container movement in Manaus to plummet 85% compared to the August peak. Despite using floating piers in Itacoatiara in 2024, movement still saw significant declines in late 2024. The report warns that Manaus remains heavily dependent on waterways, with even more severe drought conditions anticipated for 2027 due to El Niño.