Dutch economy growth forecast cut amid Middle East conflict

The Dutch central bank (DNB) warned in its spring forecast that the Netherlands' GDP will grow only 0.8% this year, far below earlier expectations of around 1.2‑1.8%. The slowdown is linked to the war in the Middle East and broader geopolitical tensions, which are dampening world trade and reducing Dutch export growth. DNB also raised its inflation outlook to 2.7% for 2026, citing higher oil prices.

Rabobank economists echoed the slowdown, lowering sectoral growth forecasts for transport, industry, construction and other areas due to higher energy costs and supply‑chain disruptions. They still expect modest growth in information and communications services and specialised business services, driven by digitalisation and AI demand. Overall, the bank projects Dutch GDP growth of about 1% for 2024 and 0.8% for 2025, with a recession still unlikely but pressures widespread across the economy.