E-commerce fraud projected to reach $131 billion by 2030

E-commerce fraud is projected to rise significantly, with Juniper Research estimating costs will grow from approximately $56 billion in 2025 to $131 billion by 2030. This increase is driven largely by friendly fraud and returns fraud. The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that 9 percent of all returns in 2025 were fraudulent, involving tactics such as empty-box returns and counterfeit decoys.

As transaction volumes grow, manual fraud review processes often fail to scale efficiently, leading to increased costs and potential customer friction through false declines. To address these challenges, business leaders are evaluating the true return on investment (ROI) of fraud prevention platforms. Key metrics for evaluation include the speed at which a platform pays for itself and the ongoing operational costs required to keep detection rules current.

Modern solutions aim to reduce operational friction by allowing teams to manage, test, and deploy rules directly, bypassing long technical implementation cycles and reducing the reliance on heavy technical maintenance.