Eastern Africa projects 5.8% growth in 2026 despite fiscal pressures

The UN Economic Commission for Africa’s Office for Eastern Africa held a briefing in Kigali, Rwanda, to present its 2026 Macroeconomic and Social Overview report, “Eastern Africa's Balancing Act: High Growth, Tight Budgets, and Rising Uncertainty.” The report finds the sub‑region remains Africa’s fastest‑growing, with an estimated 5.4 % expansion in 2025 and a projected 5.8 % increase in 2026, outpacing the continent’s 4.0 % average. Services continue to drive growth, accounting for about 66 % of Kenya’s output and roughly 40‑45 % in Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania. Rwanda’s manufacturing sector showed double‑digit growth in several subsectors, signalling a possible structural shift.

UN Resident Coordinator in Rwanda, Fatmata Lovetta Sesay, emphasized that “the region continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience” but warned that “growth alone is not enough” to create jobs and advance sustainable development. Andrew Mold, Director of ECA for Eastern Africa, highlighted fiscal constraints, noting that interest payments consumed 24 % of Kenya’s revenue, 21 % of Uganda’s, 13 % of Tanzania’s and 8 % of Rwanda’s in 2024. The dialogue underscored the need for policies that translate robust growth into broader economic transformation amid a volatile global environment.