Romania's National Bank maintains key interest rate at 6.5%

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has decided to maintain its key interest rate at 6.50% per annum. Other monetary instruments, including the Lombard rate at 7.50% and the deposit facility rate at 5.50%, also remain unchanged. This decision comes as the annual inflation rate showed a decrease to 10.42% in June 2026, down from 10.85% in May, driven largely by lower food and fuel prices.

BNR forecasts a substantial downward correction in inflation during the third quarter of 2026, as the effects of previous energy price caps and VAT/excise increases fade. The bank expects inflation to gradually return to its target range by the end of 2027. However, significant risks remain, including volatile energy and food prices, severe drought, oil price fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Regarding trade, official data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS) shows that Romania's trade deficit for the first half of 2026 reached approximately 16.46 billion euros. This represents a 2% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. Exports grew by 3.0% to over 49 billion euros, while imports rose by 1.7% to over 65 billion euros. The transport equipment sector remains the dominant component of both exports and imports.