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ECLAC warns extreme El Niño could reduce regional GDP by 2%
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has warned that an extreme El Niño event during 2026-2027 could result in a cumulative regional GDP loss of at least 2% over three years. Half of this economic impact is expected to occur within the first year. Additionally, the phenomenon could push up to 4.8 million more people into poverty by the end of the decade.
Projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggest a 90% probability of very strong El Niño intensity during the 2026-2027 boreal autumn and winter, with a 69% chance of it becoming a 'Super El Niño.' Such an event would involve sea surface temperature anomalies of +2.5°C to +3.0°C.
ECLAC highlights significant risks to energy security, agriculture, and fisheries. In many regional economies, hydroelectricity accounts for over 70% of the power matrix, making them vulnerable to reduced rainfall. To mitigate these risks, ECLAC recommends that nations secure strategic fuel supplies, perform maintenance on critical electrical infrastructure, and implement energy efficiency programs during extreme heat periods.
Entities
Caribbean · Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean · Latin America · National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration · Panama Canal
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 2 SOURCES] NOAA projections indicate a greater than 90% probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the 2026-2027 boreal autumn and winter. www.financieronews.com · revistaplus.com.py
- [○ 1 SOURCE] ECLAC recommends that countries prioritize ensuring electricity supply continuity through strategic fuel supplies and infrastructure maintenance. lajornadasanluis.com.mx
- [○ 1 SOURCE] There is a 69% probability of the event becoming a 'Super El Niño' with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.5°C or +3.0°C. www.financieronews.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] The phenomenon could push up to 4.8 million additional people into poverty by the end of the decade. www.financieronews.com · revistaplus.com.py
- [● 2 SOURCES] An extreme El Niño event could cause a cumulative loss of at least 2% of the regional GDP over three years. www.financieronews.com · revistaplus.com.py