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Brazil economic projections: GDP growth and real estate forecasts revised
Financial market analysts have revised several key economic projections for Brazil. According to the Central Bank's Focus Bulletin, the median projection for GDP growth in 2026 has been lowered from 1.98% to 1.95%, though the 2028 growth forecast rose from 1.89% to 1.98%.
Inflation expectations for 2026 remain stable at 5.02%, while the 2027 IPCA projection saw a slight increase from 4.24% to 4.25%. The Selic interest rate is expected to remain at 13.75% at the end of 2026. Regarding the exchange rate, the median projection for the US dollar at the end of 2026 is R$ 5.20, with a slight increase to R$ 5.30 projected for 2027.
In the real estate sector, Abecip has raised its 2026 financing growth projection from 16% to 25%, estimating a total of R$ 410 billion in financing. This increase is driven by strong demand in the Minha Casa Minha Vida segment, which is expected to grow by 38%. Meanwhile, residential real estate launches in Brazil saw a 1.3% decline in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year, even as sales rose by 5.3%.
Entities
ABECIP · Banco Central do Brasil · Boletim Focus · Bradesco · Brazil · CBIC · Copom · Federal Reserve · Focus Bulletin · Focus report · IBGE · IPCA
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The August IPCA-15 is expected to show a 0.31% monthly decrease and a 4.34% annual decrease.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] July is expected to see a net creation of 115,000 formal jobs, or 70,000 with seasonal adjustments.
- [● 3 SOURCES] The Jackson Hole symposium will take place from August 27 to 29.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The July unemployment rate is projected to be 5.4%, or 5.6% with seasonal adjustments.
- [● 2 SOURCES] The US will release PCE inflation data and second-quarter GDP figures.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Bradesco expects deflation due to lower energy prices from the Itaipu bonus.
- [● 4 SOURCES] The median projection for the Selic interest rate in 2026 remained at 13.75%. valor.globo.com · bpmoney.com.br · veja.abril.com.br
- [● 20 SOURCES] The median projection for Brazil's 2026 GDP growth was revised from 1.98% to 1.95%. valor.globo.com · bpmoney.com.br · veja.abril.com.br · www.atibaia.com.br · boletimgoias.com.br · +13 more
- [● 18 SOURCES] The median projection for the US dollar at the end of 2026 remained at R$ 5.20. valor.globo.com · bpmoney.com.br · veja.abril.com.br · burburinhonews.com.br · www.atibaia.com.br · +12 more
- [DISPUTED] The median projection for Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation remained at 5.02%. valor.globo.com · bpmoney.com.br · veja.abril.com.br · www.atibaia.com.br · boletimgoias.com.br · +20 more
- [● 28 SOURCES] The median expectation for IPCA in 2027 rose from 4.24% to 4.25%. valor.globo.com · bpmoney.com.br · veja.abril.com.br · www.atibaia.com.br · boletimgoias.com.br · +20 more
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The unemployment rate for July is expected to be 5.4%, or 5.6% with seasonal adjustments.