Economic perception and voter values shape electoral trends

Recent analyses highlight a disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and voter perception. In Brazil, data from BTG Pactual/Nexus indicates that while unemployment has fallen and real wages have increased, 51.1% of voters still rate the national economy as bad or terrible. This contrasts with personal financial assessments, where only 18.7% rate their own situation negatively. Political affiliation also appears to influence economic outlooks, with voters supporting different candidates holding divergent views on whether the economy has improved or worsened.

In the United States, research suggests that economic messaging alone may not be sufficient for political success. A large-scale survey experiment indicates that Democrats could increase working-class support by connecting progressive goals—such as climate change and reproductive rights—with traditional values like pride in hard work, community loyalty, and personal security. The study found that framing issues through these values can significantly boost support among voters without four-year college degrees.