Guatemala and Ecuador report mixed economic growth for early 2026

Guatemala and Ecuador reported varying economic performance during the first half of 2026. Guatemala's economy grew by 4.4%, driven by commerce, manufacturing, and remittances. The Bank of Guatemala maintains a central GDP growth projection of 4.1% for the year, though officials noted risks from international conflicts and rising oil prices.

Ecuador's economy grew by approximately 2% to 2.2% in the first semester. This expansion was primarily supported by non-oil sectors, including manufacturing (3.8%), construction (3.4%), and services (2.6%). However, the extractive sector, including oil and mining, saw a contraction of 3.4%. Internal sales in Ecuador reached a significant high in June, totaling USD 24.68 billion.

Despite growth, Ecuador faces significant economic challenges. The country recorded a petroleum trade deficit of USD 486 million in the first seven months of 2026, as the cost of importing fuel derivatives rose by 38.6% compared to the previous year. The IMF has identified three major risks for Ecuador's economy through the end of 2026: power outages, insecurity, and the potential impact of El Niño, which could threaten public finances and infrastructure.