El Niño 2026‑27 drives preparedness measures and economic forecasts in Peru, Ecuador and beyond

The 2026‑27 El Niño event is prompting a range of economic forecasts and contingency actions across South America.

In Peru, the construction sector expects a 9.4% rise in activity by year‑end, with builders projecting 11% growth, according to the CAPECO business‑expectations survey. CAPECO warned that a strong El Niño could reverse these gains, recalling a 9% drop in 1983, and called for better territorial planning and a $2 billion fund to mitigate impacts.

Ecuador’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries unveiled a $19.7 million integrated contingency plan covering 62 actions across prevention, response and recovery. The plan includes a subsidised agricultural insurance scheme covering up to 80% of premiums for roughly 79,600 producers and 215,000 hectares, aiming to limit potential economic losses to about $1.3 billion (≈1‑1.5% of GDP). Minister Juan Carlos Vega also presented a detailed “Plan de Contingencia ante el Evento El Niño,” featuring risk mapping, resilient infrastructure for farms, livestock and aquaculture, and promotion of insurance uptake.

Globally, maritime analysts warned that El Niño could reshape shipping routes, affecting four major lanes and influencing the BDRY ETF, with broader supply‑chain repercussions.

In Colombia, Bogotá’s water utility confirmed that reservoir reserves and recent infrastructure upgrades will sustain water supply through the El Niño period, despite projected drought risks.

Peru’s meteorological service warned that the coastal El Niño is likely to persist until summer 2027, with a 99% probability of intensifying and causing heavy rains in the north, drought in the south, and impacts on anchoveta fisheries.