El Niño and geopolitical shocks threaten 2026 global food security

A convergence of climatic and geopolitical factors is projected to impact the 2026 harvest cycle, potentially creating a simultaneous dual shock to the global food system.

Forecasters are monitoring a significant El Niño event. According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, there is an 88 percent probability of at least a strong El Niño, with a two-in-three chance of it reaching ‘very strong’ status. Current global models suggest the event may exceed the 2015-16 record, with sea surface anomalies already approaching super thresholds. This weather cycle, expected to peak in late fall and early winter, coincides with geopolitical tensions, posing a unique challenge to modern food stability.