El Niño 2026 strengthens, threatens Panama Canal and curtails Atlantic hurricane activity

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects that the current El Niño will persist through early 2027, with an 81 % chance of reaching a very strong intensity between October and December 2026.

Fitch Ratings warns that reduced rainfall in the Gatún Lake watershed could limit draft depth in the Panama Canal, potentially cutting vessel traffic and toll revenue. The agency also notes heightened flood and landslide risk for Andean nations and Pacific‑coast countries such as Chile, where the location of Pacific warming determines whether rains will be above or below normal.

In Colombia, the overlap of the El Niño peak with a governmental transition has sharpened concerns over water shortages and energy balance, prompting emergency risk‑management meetings.

Quito, Ecuador, is preparing for hotter, drier conditions that raise wildfire danger, with municipal patrols and fire‑watch technology already deployed.

Simultaneously, an unusual Atlantic Niña—cool sea‑surface temperatures off western Africa—combined with El Niño‑driven wind shear over the Caribbean. Meteorologists describe the shear as “the number‑one calling card of El Niño,” and forecasts from NOAA and climate specialists predict a below‑average Atlantic hurricane season, with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes expected to affect the United States.