Peru faces $3 billion losses from upcoming El Niño Costero

Peru’s economy is projected to lose roughly S/ 16 billion (about US $3 billion) from the El Niño Costero that is expected to persist through the summer of 2027. Credicorp Capital estimates the impact at 0.5 % of GDP in 2026 and 0.8 % in 2027, prompting a downgrade of growth forecasts to 3.3 % and 3.5 % respectively. The hardest‑hit regions – Tumbes, Piura, Lambayeque and La Libertad – account for about a quarter of agricultural output and a third of fisheries, with agriculture and fishing expected to see the deepest drops in production.

The national meteorological agency SENAMHI warned of a 99 % chance that the event will continue into the 2027 summer, bringing intensified rains as early as November. Early rains could overwhelm flood‑control works that remain unfinished, raising the risk of severe flooding on the Panamericana Norte highway in Tumbes. The Conveagro “Agenda de Emergencia” estimates that more than 9 million people, 2.4 million homes and thousands of schools and health facilities could be affected, with potential losses exceeding USD 3 billion.

Industry groups such as CAPECO stress structural weaknesses – inadequate land‑use planning, informal settlement and lack of a dedicated agency to operate and maintain preventive infrastructure – and call for a coordinated, permanent prevention strategy. Parallel scientific work explores geo‑engineering concepts, such as marine cloud brightening, as a possible way to moderate future El Niño intensity, but these ideas remain experimental and are not part of current policy.