started · updated
El Niño forecast indicates very strong event for late 2026
Meteorologists and researchers are forecasting a very strong El Niño event to develop in late 2026, with significant potential to persist into the spring of 2027. According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the probability of a very strong El Niño during the October–December 2026 period has risen to 95%. Forecasts indicate a median sea surface temperature anomaly of +2.66°C for that period.
This intensification carries substantial environmental risks. An analysis by Amazon Conservation highlights a historical correlation between strong El Niño events and subsequent wildfire crises. For instance, the 2023 El Niño preceded the worst fire season on record in 2024, which saw 6.89 million acres of primary forest lost. Researchers warn that the upcoming 2026–2027 cycle could trigger similar or even more severe primary forest losses in the Amazon basin.
While the phenomenon is driven by warming in the equatorial Pacific, its effects are global. In Europe, there is concern regarding potential temperature increases and persistent weather patterns, though specific impacts on regions like Italy remain difficult to predict with absolute certainty.
Entities
Amazon Conservation · Amazon rainforest · Climate Prediction Center · NOAA · National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration · Pacific Ocean
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The median sea surface temperature anomaly for October–December 2026 is forecasted at +2.66°C. recentlyheard.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The 2015 El Niño resulted in 4.35 million acres of primary forest loss in 2016. www.amazonconservation.org
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Stronger El Niño events are consistently followed by more severe fire seasons and greater primary forest loss in the following year. www.amazonconservation.org
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026 is 95%. recentlyheard.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The 2023 El Niño led to the worst fire season on record in 2024, with 6.89 million acres of forest lost. www.amazonconservation.org
- [○ 1 SOURCE] There is a 97% probability that El Niño will persist until the beginning of spring 2027. www.umbriajournal.com