El Niño may not shield insurers despite a quieter 2026 hurricane season
El Niño, a periodic climate phenomenon that typically suppresses Atlantic hurricanes, arrived in June 2024, marking the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. U.S. government scientists forecast a below‑average 2026 season with eight to fourteen named storms and one to three major hurricanes.
Historically, a quieter season reduces insurers’ losses, which have averaged about $30 billion per year between 2016 and 2024. However, rapid coastal development—over 40 million more residents in U.S. coastal counties since 1970—and rising home values (up more than 70%) and reconstruction costs (up over 60%) have heightened exposure. Insurers therefore say even a low‑storm year could generate very large payouts. They are revising risk models to prioritize where storms make landfall and the value of property at risk. “All it takes is one landfalling hurricane to create an insured loss of a magnitude we’ve never seen before … And that could absolutely happen in an El Niño year,” said Kimberly Roberts, advisory leader of North American peril at reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter.
Entities
Aon · El Niño · Guy Carpenter · Kimberly Roberts · United States
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 4 SOURCES] U.S. coastal county populations have increased by more than 40 million since 1970. kelo.com · wixx.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Insurers are shifting risk assessments to focus on storm landfall locations and property values at risk. kelo.com · wixx.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [DISPUTED] The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to have eight to fourteen named storms and one to three major hurricanes. kelo.com · wixx.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Home values have risen more than 70% and reconstruction costs more than 60% over the past decade. kelo.com · wixx.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Insured losses from Atlantic hurricanes averaged about $30 billion per season between 2016 and 2024. kelo.com · wixx.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] U.S. government scientists said El Niño arrived in June 2024, marking the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. kelo.com · wixx.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricanes, leading to fewer storms. kelo.com · wixx.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Kimberly Roberts said a single landfalling hurricane could create an insured loss of unprecedented magnitude, even in an El Niño year. kelo.com · wixx.com · wxerfm.com · wsau.com