El Niño pattern to drive above-average snowfall in California and Nevada

A new winter forecast from OpenSnow predicts above-average snowfall for parts of the Southwest United States, driven by a developing ‘super El Niño’ pattern. The 2026–2027 Winter Forecast Preview indicates that California and Nevada are positioned for an active storm track, with the heaviest storm cycles expected to increase after the new year.

Data suggests the Central Sierra holds the highest statistical probability for well-above-average snow accumulation, specifically benefiting destinations such as Mammoth Mountain and China Peak. While northern California and the Tahoe region are projected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures, forecasters do not anticipate extreme warmth levels similar to previous historic highs.

Meteorologist Alan Smith noted that the strong El Niño pattern favors an active southern storm track, which is expected to bring above-normal precipitation to various regions, including the West Coast, Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, and East Coast.