El Niño patterns expected to influence US winter snowfall

A potentially record-setting El Niño is expected to influence winter weather and snowfall patterns across the United States. This natural climate phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, alters atmospheric circulation and the jet stream.

Historical analysis of snowfall from 1959 through 2026 suggests that during past El Niño winters, snowfall has generally been above average across the southern United States. This includes regions stretching from the Southwest and southern Rockies through the southern Plains, southern Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic.

While the shifted jet stream favors wetter conditions in the southern US, the northern regions tend to experience drier and milder temperatures. Experts note that increased precipitation does not always equate to more snow, as sufficiently cold air is required to prevent rain. In the Mid-Atlantic, El Niño can intensify nor’easters as storms track along the Appalachians or push off the coast.