Brazil braces for El Niño impacts on agriculture, inflation and climate

The United Nations World Meteorological Organization warned that the El Niño will intensify to a strong episode by September, raising the risk of extreme weather worldwide. In Brazil, the phenomenon is expected to bring above‑average rainfall to the south and southeast and drier conditions to the north and northeast, affecting key crops such as soy, corn, wheat, sugar and coffee. Analysts project that food‑price inflation could reach 10 % by 2026 and add roughly 0.75 percentage points to the IPCA through 2027 (Santander). Itaú BBA says the 2026/27 harvest will face tighter profitability due to higher costs, credit constraints and the El Niño outlook. Wheat planting is forecast to fall 13‑17 % in area, with production down about 27 % because of high input costs and adverse weather. An online seminar held on 8 July in Paraná gathered academics and NGOs to discuss preparation for a “Super El Niño” and its societal impacts. Overall, the strengthening El Niño poses significant challenges for Brazil’s climate adaptation, agricultural sector and food‑price stability.