El Niño strengthening could impact Balkan and Adriatic winter weather

The El Niño phenomenon is strengthening and is expected to be a major climatic factor shaping the 2026/2027 winter. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced in September that the phenomenon is firmly established, with a nearly 100 percent probability of continuing at least until February 2027. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will reach a very strong category during the northern autumn and winter of 2026/27.

While El Niño is driven by sea surface temperature changes in the tropical Pacific, its impact on Europe, the Balkans, and the Adriatic is indirect and complex. It influences global atmospheric circulation, jet stream positioning, and polar fronts. For the Balkan and Adriatic regions, seasonal models suggest a possibility of above-average temperatures and increased precipitation. However, experts note that El Niño does not act as a simple switch for warm or cold weather; the specific outcome depends on various other factors, including Mediterranean temperatures, Atlantic conditions, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).