El Niño suppresses 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasts show

Colorado State University (CSU) has lowered its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane, well below the 1991‑2020 average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The revision follows a rapid strengthening of El Niño, which NOAA says has an 81% chance of becoming very strong between October and December and is expected to persist into spring 2027. Strong El Niño conditions increase vertical wind shear over the Caribbean and Atlantic, inhibiting tropical cyclone development. CSU has cut its outlook three times this year – from 13 named storms in April, to 11 in June, and now nine in July.

Agricultural climatologist Pam Knox noted, “El Niño has a big effect on the number of tropical storms… a really strong jet stream aloft keeps the vertical structure of hurricanes from forming.” The first storm, Arthur, formed in June and produced record‑breaking rain in Louisiana. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the continental United States has dropped to 17% (from a historical 43%). While the season is expected to be unusually quiet, officials warn that any storm can still cause significant damage.