El Niño threatens global rice production

A strong El Niño developing in the tropical Pacific is projected to intensify in the coming months, altering global rainfall patterns with severe storms in some regions and droughts in others. The disruption endangers the world’s rice harvest – the primary staple for more than half of the planet’s population.

Rice cultivation is highly concentrated in Asia; China and India together account for over 50 % of global output, while Bangladesh, Vietnam and Cambodia each rely on the grain for the majority of daily calories. Because less than 10 % of the crop is exported, any shortfall quickly drives international prices upward. Experts warn that rising production costs, combined with El Niño‑induced water scarcity – especially in flooded paddies that need steady moisture – could trigger a price spike reminiscent of the 2007‑08 crisis, which sparked protests and political unrest in several nations.

The phenomenon occurs against a backdrop of permanent global warming, which accelerates evaporation and worsens drought conditions. Researchers are seeking drought‑tolerant rice varieties, but such strains typically yield less, underscoring the need for new resilient seeds to safeguard food security.