NOAA forecasts warmer, wetter US winter driven by El Niño

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook, predicting a season heavily influenced by a very strong El Niño. The forecast suggests that much of the northern United States, including the Midwest, Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Northeast, will experience warmer-than-average temperatures.

Precipitation patterns are expected to shift significantly. The southern tier of the country, stretching from California to Florida, and the Eastern Seaboard are likely to see wetter-than-average conditions. This increased moisture may help alleviate persistent drought conditions in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, and Southeast. However, meteorologists warned that heavy rainfall on dry soil could trigger flash floods and mudslides in these areas.

While the winter is expected to be wetter, it may not be snowier for many. Forecasters indicate that northern regions, such as the Great Lakes and the Upper Midwest, could see below-normal snowfall. Conversely, the Southern Rockies, Southeast, and Southwest may experience higher-than-usual snow amounts. In the Ohio Valley, including parts of Kentucky and Indiana, temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal, though precipitation levels remain uncertain.