Electric mobility trends: Europe's bus transition and China's battery waste challenge

The electrification of public transport in Europe is accelerating rapidly. The market share of zero-emission city buses in the EU rose from 12% in 2019 to 56% in 2025. Data from Transport & Environment suggests that if current growth trends continue, the EU could achieve 100% zero-emission sales for new city buses by 2028, seven years ahead of the official 2035 target. Several EU nations, including Estonia, have already reached 100% zero-emission new deliveries.

Simultaneously, the massive rise in electric vehicle (EV) adoption is creating a significant waste management challenge in China. As the first wave of EV batteries reaches the end of its roughly eight-year lifespan, China is facing a surge in decommissioned units. While certified recycling capacity currently exceeds the volume of waste, only about one-quarter of used batteries enter legal channels. An unregulated market has emerged, where illegal operators offer higher prices to owners by bypassing safety and environmental costs. Projections indicate that the volume of waste batteries in China could reach 22.39 million tons by 2030, presenting both a major environmental risk and an opportunity to recover valuable materials like lithium, nickel, copper, and manganese.