Elon Musk predicts 1 billion humanoid robots within a decade

Elon Musk has predicted that humanoid robots could exceed the total productivity of the human population within the next decade. Speaking virtually to the G20, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO suggested that there could be more than 1 billion humanoid robots in operation within 10 years.

Musk noted that once robots are capable of manufacturing other robots, production will enter an explosive, self-reinforcing cycle. He estimated that each robot could be roughly five times as productive as a human, potentially increasing total global economic output by a factor of ten or more. Additionally, he projected that artificial intelligence alone could boost the global economy by 20% to 30%, adding $20 trillion to $30 trillion annually.

However, Musk warned that significant obstacles remain. He identified a looming electricity shortage as a primary constraint on AI expansion, noting that power generation infrastructure is not keeping pace with the massive energy demands of new AI data centers and chips. He urged regulators to adopt more permissive approaches to innovation to avoid stifling technological progress.