Energy sector updates: AEMO reports improved Australian reliability while Meridian Energy sees profit turnaround

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) reports an improved reliability outlook for the National Electricity Market (NEM), driven by record levels of new generation and storage. Approximately 9.1GW of new capacity is expected to connect in 2025-26. However, AEMO warns that significant investment will be required beyond 2030 to maintain security as 15GW of coal and gas generation is scheduled to retire and electricity demand is forecast to grow by over 40%.

Reliability forecasts vary based on project delivery confidence. An optimistic assessment suggests no reliability gaps before 2033-34 in several states, while a more conservative assessment, accounting for potential commissioning delays, predicts gaps emerging as early as 2030-31 in New South Wales and Victoria.

In New Zealand, state-controlled energy supplier Meridian Energy reported a turnaround net profit of $130 million for the year ended June, following a previous year loss of $452 million. The company reported EBITDAF of $1.051 billion. Following these results, Meridian has pledged to keep power price increases for residential and small business customers below the annual inflation rate for the current financial year.