England and Wales face demographic turning point as deaths outpace births and abortions rise

Official projections show that from 2026 deaths will outnumber births each year in England and Wales, creating a surplus of about 450,000 deaths over births across the next decade. The Office for National Statistics attributes the shift to a record‑low fertility rate of 1.39 children per woman and a decline in net migration. Analysts warn that without immigration the population will begin to shrink in the mid‑2050s, putting pressure on public finances and the pension system.

In the same period, the share of conceptions ending in abortion has risen to a historic 32.1% in 2023, the highest recorded level. Nearly 280,000 pregnancies were terminated, a 13% increase from the previous year, driven in part by the expanded “pills by post” service that allows at‑home medical abortions. Legislative changes in 2024 decriminalised abortion up to birth and removed the requirement for in‑person consultations, further influencing the trend.

These combined trends highlight a deepening demographic challenge for England and Wales, with implications for healthcare, social policy and the future labour force.