OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast as Middle East conflict weighs

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its 2026 global oil‑demand growth forecast to 800,000 barrels per day, the third such revision this year, down from a previous estimate of about 1 million bpd. The cut reflects heightened uncertainty from the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have constrained supply from the Gulf region. OPEC nonetheless raised its 2027 outlook, expecting demand to increase by 1.94 million bpd, about 200,000 bpd more than its June forecast.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a historic first annual decline in oil demand since the COVID‑19 pandemic, estimating a drop of roughly 1 million bpd for 2026 before a rebound of about 2 million bpd in 2027. The agency highlighted geopolitical risk, especially around the Hormuz corridor, as a key source of market volatility.

Eni chief executive Claudio Descalzi warned that, if the Middle East conflict persists, global oil prices could break out of the current $80‑$100 per barrel range by early 2027, pressuring inflation and dampening energy demand. He noted that global crude inventories have fallen sharply, averaging a 3.8 million‑bpd drawdown and accelerating to 4.6 million bpd in May, and called for greater energy‑security through diversification of supply sources and routes.