Estonian defense official warns of potential Russian attack within a year

Martin Herem, the former commander of the Estonian Armed Forces and incoming Minister of Defense, has warned that Russia could launch a military attack against Estonia within a year. Speaking to radio ERR, Herem suggested that the timeline depends heavily on the conclusion of the war in Ukraine. He argued that if the conflict in Ukraine ends within the next six months, Russia might require only an additional six months to replenish its depleted military stockpiles and prepare for actions against Estonia.

Herem’s assessment has drawn criticism from some military experts and commanders. Outgoing Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur remarked that the incoming minister should not issue political demands to intelligence services regarding changes to national security threat assessments. Additionally, media reports have noted discussions regarding Herem’s ties to the defense company Frankenburg.