Horn of Africa faces escalating regional security crises

Horn of Africa regional security Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions Somalia conflict Bab el-Mandeb Strait

The Horn of Africa is facing heightened instability due to overlapping security crises. Djibouti is positioned at a critical juncture, facing humanitarian strain from over 20,000 migrants fleeing Ethiopia and civilians escaping conflict in Yemen near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

In Ethiopia, renewed fighting in the north involving federal forces and Tigrayan groups threatens the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have escalated, with Addis Ababa accusing Asmara of territorial violations at the UN Security Council. This instability is compounded by Ethiopia's pursuit of Red Sea access, which has prompted diplomatic coordination between Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia.

In Somalia, allegations have surfaced regarding Ethiopian military movements in the Southwest State. Reports suggest Ethiopian forces withdrew from strategic towns in the Bay and Bakool regions, allowing Al-Shabaab militants to seize territory. Local officials have called for investigations into claims that UAE-linked funds were used to influence military commanders to facilitate these withdrawals. This development threatens international security funding, including European Union support for Somali operations.

Entities

African Union · Al-Shabaab · Al-Shabaab · Djibouti · Eritrea · Ethiopia · Ethiopia · Somalia · United Arab Emirates · United Arab Emirates

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[○ 1 SOURCE] The European Union approved an additional €75 million for the African Union Support and Stability in Somalia in April 2026. shabellemedia.com
[● 2 SOURCES] Ethiopian troops in Southwest Somalia allegedly used UAE-linked payments to influence local commanders. shabellemedia.com · horseedmedia.net
[● 3 SOURCES] Ethiopia accused Eritrea of territorial violations and supporting armed groups before the UN Security Council. axadletimes.com · time.news
[● 2 SOURCES] Bribes were allegedly paid to military officers in the Bay region to encourage them to abandon their posts. shabellemedia.com · horseedmedia.net
[○ 1 SOURCE] Djibouti has absorbed over 20,000 migrants from Ethiopia since September 10. time.news
[● 2 SOURCES] Ethiopian forces withdrew from key towns in the Bay region, allowing Al-Shabaab to take control. shabellemedia.com · horseedmedia.net