EU agricultural outlook 2026 foresees falling olive oil output and tighter farmer margins

The European Commission’s short‑term agricultural market outlook for 2026 projects a generally positive outlook for most EU crops, but highlights a decline in olive‑oil production. While output of oilseeds, dairy, pork and poultry is expected to rise, cereal harvests will stay close to the five‑year average and sugar and ruminant sectors are projected to fall. The report cites higher production costs, climate risks, animal diseases and ongoing trade tensions as pressure points on farmer profit margins.

A separate analysis notes that rising input costs are squeezing farm profitability across the Union. Despite stronger yields in some crops, tighter margins could curb the pace of production growth. The outlook also expects EU cereal exports to remain robust, with only a marginal rise in imports, while oilseed and vegetable‑oil output could exceed the five‑year average.

Both documents stress uncertainty in macro‑economic and energy markets, noting that a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a normalising energy market are key assumptions for the 2026 forecasts.