EU Commission projects slower growth and rising inflation for Greece

The European Commission’s spring economic forecasts show Greece’s growth slowing to below 2% – 1.8% this year and 1.6% by 2027 – while inflation is expected to rise, reaching 3.7% in 2026 and easing to 2.4% in 2027. The projection reflects the impact of higher energy prices linked to the Middle‑East situation. Public debt is projected to remain the highest in the euro area, falling to 140.7% of GDP in 2026 and 134.4% in 2027, though the debt trajectory stays downward. Despite the slowdown, the Commission expects strong investment supported by continued absorption of EU Recovery and Resilience Facility funds. Fiscal balances are forecast to stay in surplus, at 0.8% of GDP in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, driven by lower spending and higher tax revenues, especially from VAT. The labour market remains resilient, with unemployment at 8.4% – the lowest level since 2008 – though still above the EU average, and long‑term unemployment staying around 5%.