EU illicit cigarette market tops 41 billion units in 2025

A KPMG study commissioned by Philip Morris Products SA finds that the illicit cigarette market in the European Union surpassed 41.8 billion cigarettes in 2025, representing 10.3% of total consumption and a tax loss of €16.7 billion. Counterfeit cigarettes now dominate the illegal trade, accounting for 18.3 billion units (44% of the illicit market) and growing more than 20% year‑on‑year.

France remains the largest illicit market, with a 41.4% share (20.5 billion cigarettes). Belgium (≈25%) and the Netherlands (over 22%) also show high shares. Latvia ranks third among the surveyed countries with a 12.9% share (≈220 million cigarettes), behind only France and the United Kingdom, which records more than 7 billion illicit units, half of which are counterfeit. Greece’s share fell to 14.1% (1.9 billion), and Ukraine saw a decline of nearly one billion cigarettes.

“Counterfeiting has become the main driver of the EU illicit cigarette market,” said Christos Harpantidis, Group Chief Corporate Affairs Officer of Philip Morris International. Philip Morris Europe Region President Massimo Andolina added that balanced tax policies and stable regulations can curb illicit trade.