EU Maps Chinese Supply Chain Weaknesses Amid Growing Trade Surplus

German government agencies are secretly analysing China’s economic dependencies to identify industrial chokepoints that could be targeted if trade tensions rise. The assessment, reviewed by Reuters, focuses on critical raw materials, chemical precursors and advanced technology components that dominate German and broader EU supply chains, especially in the auto and machinery sectors.

At the same time, the EU notes a record Chinese trade surplus with the bloc—approximately €360 billion in 2025, up 24 % year‑on‑year. China is reportedly exploiting divisions among individual EU members and nearby countries such as the UK and Morocco to expand its exports, while seeking concessions on tariffs for electric vehicles and on export controls for chip‑making equipment. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has set an October deadline for tangible results on the surplus, and German Minister Robert Habeck leads efforts to de‑risk the EU’s trillion‑euro export economy.

Both initiatives reflect a broader shift from unfettered trade to strategic resilience, aiming to safeguard European industry against potential Chinese retaliation or supply disruptions.