EU Population Set to Peak by 2029 Before Long‑Term Decline

EU population peak demographic decline ageing population immigration silver economy

Eurostat data show the European Union’s population stood at about 450.6 million at the start of 2026 and is projected to reach a peak of roughly 453 million in 2029. After that the bloc will experience a gradual decline, falling to around 398 million by 2100 – a level last seen in the 1970s.

The growth to 2029 is driven almost entirely by net migration; natural change has been negative since 2012, with deaths outpacing births. Malta recorded the fastest per‑capita increase, while Latvia, Estonia and Hungary saw the sharpest declines. Greece faces a particularly steep long‑term fall, projected to lose about 30 % of its population by 2100.

Life expectancy reached 81.5 years in 2024 and is expected to exceed 90 years for women and 86 years for men by the end of the century. By 2050 nearly one‑third of EU residents will be aged 65 or older, up from one‑fifth today. The ageing trend creates labour shortages, strains public pensions, health‑care and education systems, and pressures public finances. The EU cites the emerging “silver economy” as a potential growth area, while urging higher productivity, lower unemployment and better integration of women and youth to offset a shrinking workforce. Migration can partly mitigate the demographic squeeze but will not reverse the overall trajectory.