EU report forecasts shrinking, aging population by 2100

The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre released its third demographic report, showing that the EU population has reached a historic peak of about 450.6 million and is expected to rise slightly to roughly 453 million by 2029 before entering a long‑term decline. By 2050 the population is projected to fall to around 445 million and to 398.8 million by 2100 – an 11.7 % drop to levels last seen in the 1970s.

Life expectancy continues to rise, reaching 81.5 years in 2024 and projected to exceed 90 years for women and 86 years for men by the end of the century. The share of people aged 65 or older will increase from one in five today to almost one in three by 2050, while the number of people needing long‑term care could rise from 36 million in 2025 to about 48 million in 2070.

The report flags major challenges for labour markets, pension systems and public finances: roughly 20 % of the working‑age population is currently outside the labour market and about 8 million young people are neither employed nor in education or training. Migration is described as “a necessity” by EU commissioner Dubravka Suica, but it is not expected to fully offset the demographic squeeze.

At the same time, the Commission highlights opportunities in the emerging “silver economy” – new markets for health, technology, housing and financial services aimed at older citizens – and calls for policies that boost productivity, improve skill‑upgrading, support affordable housing for young families and manage migration responsibly.