EU population set to peak in 2029 then fall to 1970s level by 2100

The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre reports that the EU’s population reached a record 450.6 million in 2024 and will rise slightly to about 453.3 million by 2029 before entering a long‑term decline. By 2050 the population is projected to fall to roughly 445 million and to 398.8 million by 2100 – an 11.7 % drop that returns to the size of the mid‑1970s.

Life expectancy hit 81.5 years in 2024 and could exceed 90 years for women and 86 years for men by 2100. The share of people aged 65 or older will increase from one‑in‑five today to almost one‑in‑three by 2050. The number of people needing long‑term care is expected to grow from 36 million in 2025 to about 48 million by 2070, roughly 11 % of the EU population.

The report flags labour‑market pressures: the working‑age population (15‑64) may shrink by about 1.2 million each year between 2025 and 2050, and around 20 % of working‑age adults are currently outside the labour force, including eight million young people who are neither employed, in education nor training. The Commission cites risks such as skill shortages, strained public finances and pressure on health, education and pensions, but also highlights opportunities in the “silver economy” – new markets for products and services tailored to older citizens. Migration can partly offset the demographic squeeze, though it will not fully reverse the trend.

“Ein Kind, das 2023 in der EU geboren wurde, kann damit rechnen, ohne schwerwiegende Erkrankungen zu leben, bis es 75,3 Jahre alt ist,” the commission stated.