Eurasia Group reduces Flávio Bolsonaro's victory probability

The Eurasia Group has lowered the estimated probability of Flávio Bolsonaro's victory in the presidential second round from 70% to 60%. This adjustment follows a recent recovery in polling for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Analysts noted that the average margin of advantage for Bolsonaro narrowed from 2.6 percentage points on October 21 to 1.9 percentage points by October 23. However, when adjusting for voter turnout probabilities, the consultancy suggests Bolsonaro maintains an advantage of approximately 2 points.

The recovery for Lula is attributed to intensified campaigning focused on social protection proposals, such as free public transportation, the 'Pé-de-Meia' university program, and the reduction of the 6x1 work week. Additionally, a decrease in the public debate surrounding Supreme Federal Court (STF) scandals has allowed the incumbent to leverage his position more effectively.