< Back to all clusters
[BUSINESS] · Brazil, Argentina · 46 sources

started · updated

Brazil economic outlook: Inflation forecasts adjusted and interest rate projections revised

Financial markets in Brazil have adjusted their 2026 IPCA inflation forecast from 5.01% to 5%, according to the Central Bank’s Focus Bulletin. While this represents a slight reduction, the projection remains above the National Monetary Council’s target of 3%, which allows for a tolerance range between 1.5% and 4.5%.

Regarding monetary policy, analysts expect the Selic interest rate to follow a downward trajectory, projecting it to reach 13.75% by the end of 2026, 12% in 2027, and potentially 10% by 2029. Bank of America has expressed optimism, revising its Selic projection for the end of 2027 down to 11.25% and increasing its recommendation for Brazilian equities.

In other economic developments, Argentina has achieved record-breaking dairy exports for the first seven months of 2026, with volumes and values increasing by 20% and 18% respectively. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Central Bank is considering tightening capital requirements for financial institutions to curb rising household debt, specifically targeting credit card and unsecured personal loan operations.

Entities

Argentina · Banco Central do Brasil · Banco de Portugal · Bank of America · Brazil · Central Bank of Brazil · Comitê de Política Monetária · Conselho Monetário Nacional · Euribor · European Central Bank · FGV · Focus Bulletin

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

Sources

2 days ago