Eurobank Equities raises profit forecasts for Greek refineries

Eurobank Equities has significantly upgraded its profitability forecasts for Greek refineries Motor Oil and HELLENiQ Energy for the 2026–2028 period. This revision follows a strong summer increase in refining margins, particularly for diesel and jet fuel, which moved toward $80 per barrel due to tightening market supply.

For 2026, the firm now projects adjusted EBITDA of €2.52 billion for Motor Oil and €2.27 billion for HELLENiQ Energy. These figures represent an increase of more than 80% compared to June estimates. Looking ahead to 2027, the firm anticipates an exceptional year with combined EBITDA for Greek refineries between €2.0 billion and €2.25 billion, and adjusted net profits estimated between €1.2 billion and €1.6 billion.

Regarding investment recommendations, Eurobank Equities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating for Motor Oil, raising its price target from €53.2 to €73.9, though it has removed the company from its top picks. For HELLENiQ Energy, the price target was raised from €12.6 to €17.5, but the recommendation was downgraded from ‘Buy’ to ‘Hold’ as much of the upward movement is already reflected in the stock price.