Eurobank says Europe faces greater gas than oil price risk

Eurobank’s Global & Regional Focus Notes analysis finds that Europe’s energy markets are now better shielded against a new oil price crisis but remain more exposed to natural‑gas price volatility. Diversification of oil suppliers after Russia’s invasion has reduced EU dependence on Russian oil, while the gas market suffers from low inventories, higher reliance on LNG and the goal of ending Russian gas imports by 2027. The bank forecasts TTF gas prices at €47.9‑€49.9/MWh in 2026 under a favorable geopolitical scenario and €54‑€57.1/MWh under a adverse one. Brent crude is projected at $85.6‑$87.1 per barrel in the base case and $88.5‑$93.4 in the downside case, compared with $68.2 in 2025. The analysis notes that the July 2023 US‑Iran tension lifted oil prices back to pre‑crisis levels, while TTF remained about 36 % above pre‑crisis levels as of 6 July. It also highlights the EU’s renewable‑energy target of 42.5 % of gross final consumption by 2030, which remains far from the 26.2 % share recorded in 2025.