Europe faces mild, wet winter forecast driven by El Niño

Meteorological forecasts for the 2026/2027 winter season suggest that Europe will experience warmer and wetter conditions than usual. A significant driver of this trend is a powerful El Niño event, characterized by extreme warming of the Pacific Ocean surface, which is expected to peak around December.

Most of the continent is projected to see above-average temperatures, particularly in December and January, as warm, moist air from the Atlantic moves inland. While increased precipitation is expected, it is likely to fall as rain rather than snow in many regions. Snowfall is predicted to be scarce across much of Europe, with the primary exceptions being Northern Europe and high-altitude areas of the Alps, specifically above 1,800 to 2,000 meters.

The stability of these patterns depends on the polar vortex. Forecasts from the ECMWF indicate a potential weakening of the polar vortex starting in late December, which could lead to brief, sharp cold spells in Central and Southeastern Europe. However, the overall trend remains mild, posing challenges for ski resorts at lower altitudes due to the lack of natural snow.