Europe Shifts to US LNG, Raising New Energy‑Security Concerns

Europe is confronting a second energy crisis within four years. The first began in 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cut off about 45 % of the bloc’s pipeline gas, driving prices to record highs. In February 2026, U.S.‑Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, slashing daily LNG shipments to Europe from roughly 21.6 million to under 3 million barrels and pushing TTF gas prices up sharply.

To replace Russian supplies, the EU has rapidly increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, which now provides roughly two‑thirds of Europe’s LNG and could reach 80 % by 2030. New EU regulations ban Russian pipeline gas from June 2026 (short‑term contracts) and November 2027 (long‑term contracts) and phase out Russian LNG from April 2026 and January 2027. U.S. officials claim the United States has displaced about two‑thirds of Russia’s gas to Western Europe.

European defence and energy officials warn that this creates a new dependency on the United States. General Richard Shirreff is quoted as saying, “Generating dependence on the United States at a time like this is not smart.” Meanwhile, the prolonged closure of the Hormuz Strait and competing demand from Asian buyers, especially China and India, have reduced the global LNG pool, raising the risk that Europe will face higher gas costs this winter. Analysts say physical shortages are unlikely, but soaring prices could burden households and industry.