Europe LNG demand remains high despite potential El Niño

Europe faces sustained high demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the 2026-2027 winter, according to analysis by Rystad Energy. While a strong El Niño event is highly probable, its ability to significantly reduce energy needs remains uncertain.

Forecasters indicate that for El Niño to meaningfully ease the region's LNG requirements, winter temperatures would need to be at least 2 degrees Celsius above the historical average. Current projections show a 100% probability of an El Niño event occurring over the next nine months, with an 81% chance of a temperature index rise of at least 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, even in a moderate scenario with a 1-degree increase, Europe is expected to require approximately 7 million tonnes more LNG than the previous winter.

The energy market faces heightened pressure due to lower projected gas storage levels—estimated at roughly 76% by November 1st—and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have impacted deliveries from the Persian Gulf. To offset lower storage and reduced flows, the region may need approximately 15.15 million tonnes of additional LNG by June 2027 compared to last year.