Europe projected to outnumber Russia in modern fighter jets by 2030

European air forces are expected to achieve a numerical advantage in modern combat aircraft over Russia by 2030. While Russia currently maintains a fleet of over 1,000 aircraft, intelligence estimates suggest only 400 to 450 are modern models, such as the Su-30, Su-34, Su-35S, and Su-57.

Russian industrial production has reached a plateau, with new combat aircraft production limited to approximately 30 to 35 units per year. By 2030, Russia may possess between 600 and 650 modern jets, but the scalability of the Su-57 remains unproven, and the country faces difficulties replacing Soviet-era bombers like the Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 due to defunct production lines.

Despite the projected numerical superiority, European air power faces a significant challenge regarding strategic autonomy. A substantial portion of Europe's operational sustainability, including equipment, maintenance, and core technology, remains heavily dependent on support from the United States.