Europe wildfire risks projected to rise significantly by end of century

Research from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Senckenberg Society indicates that wildfire-affected areas in Europe could increase by 192% by the end of the century under high-emission scenarios. While the Mediterranean has traditionally been the most vulnerable region, projections suggest that even moderate warming will expand fire risks to Central Europe, including parts of Germany and Belgium.

The study highlights two primary trajectories: a 39% annual increase in burned area with 1.8°C of warming, and a 192% increase with 3.6°C of warming. However, researchers emphasize that human intervention can significantly mitigate these risks. Improved forest management, early detection, and effective extinction measures could reduce the burned surface area by up to 92% if warming is contained at 1.8°C.

In response to rising risks, industries such as photovoltaics are facing new challenges in protecting solar assets. Some regions, like France, have implemented legal obligations for brush clearing (Obligations Légales de Débroussaillement) to reduce fuel loads and create vegetation discontinuities, aiming to decrease fire intensity and slow propagation.