European ecommerce growth projected to slow to 5 percent

European ecommerce growth is projected to slow in the coming year. According to reports from Ecommerce Europe and EuroCommerce, nominal growth across the continent is expected to reach 5 percent for 2026, with real growth estimated at 3 percent. While online consumer spending in Europe reached 911 billion euros in 2025, the pace of expansion is decelerating compared to previous years. Regional trends vary significantly: Western Europe remains the largest market, accounting for 57 percent of total turnover, while Eastern Europe is seeing a sharp decline in growth momentum, falling from 14 percent last year to a projected 5 percent.

In Central Europe, specifically covering markets such as Germany, Poland, and Switzerland, the market is entering a more predictable phase. A joint forecast by ECDB and Mastercard suggests that regional turnover for physical goods will rise from 191.3 billion euros in 2025 to 223.5 billion euros by 2027. This growth is being driven more by increased purchase frequency than by larger basket sizes. Additionally, the rise of ‘Agentic Commerce’ is noted, as AI agents begin to move beyond product searches toward performing controlled payment transactions.