European winter 2026/2027 forecast predicts split seasonal patterns

Long-term meteorological models for the 2026/2027 winter season suggest a divided weather pattern across Europe, influenced by El Niño and warm sea temperatures in the Mediterranean and Northern Hemisphere.

The first half of the season is expected to be a ‘grey winter,’ characterized by damp, relatively warm, and rainy conditions rather than heavy snow. In regions such as Slovakia and Hungary, higher precipitation is anticipated, but snow cover may remain limited to higher altitudes during November and December.

A shift is projected for the second half of the season. Between mid-January and the end of February, atmospheric circulation may change due to high-pressure systems over Scandinavia and the British Isles. This could draw cold air from Russia into Central Europe, potentially bringing a ‘Russian winter’ with significant frost and snow. While some areas like parts of Germany, Poland, Ukraine, and southern Sweden may see above-average snowfall in February, much of Europe is expected to experience less snow than usual.