Fed hold odds boost Bitcoin sentiment as US inflation eases

Prediction‑market platform Polymarket raised the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its July meeting to 94% after U.S. CPI showed inflation falling to 3.5% year‑over‑year, down from 4.2% in May. The improved outlook lifted risk appetite, helping Bitcoin sentiment and prompting fresh inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, including $132.3 million on July 17.

Across broader markets, traders still see near‑zero odds of a Fed rate cut by the end of July and price roughly 45 basis points of cuts by year‑end, down from earlier expectations. The dollar softened, U.S. equities slipped modestly, and Treasury yields eased. In Brazil, the central bank left the Selic rate unchanged at 15%, maintaining a restrictive stance. Bitcoin rose 1.5% to about $117,653.